sexta-feira, abril 06, 2007

Hard Rain

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Up, Down, Thread Up: not just one ... a Fleet!, Thread Down: can't stop Progress eh?.

James HansenTuesday April 10 2007

10/04/07, Frank Hornig, Spiegel Interview with NASA Climate Expert James Hansen, Source.

"We Need to Take Action Soon."

George BushGeorge BushSunday April 08 2007

08/04/07, NYT Editorial, Hot and Cold, (Source).

There are no mistakes in life some people say
And it's true sometimes, you can see it that way.

     Man in the Long Black Coat.

I try to keep in mind that these are not men but institutions - every father and husband knows something of what this feels like. So it is no good blaming the Bushs (Bushes?) for what is going on; like Nixon they are no more than the epitomes of their culture, straw men, something like that ...

Saturday April 07 2007

Alana Gandra, Pesquisadora quer índice para medir qualidade de vida e desenvolvimento ambiental, (Source).

Ana Raquel Martins:
     IDH - Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano
     ISA - Índice de Sustentabilidade Ambiental
     IDHh - Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano híbrido

Sustentabilidade Ambiental como Nova Dimensão do Índice de Desenvolvimento Humano dos Países, dez 2006 (#$%$! pdf!).
Desenvolvimento Sustentável: uma análise das limitações do índice de desenvolvimento humano para refletir a sustentabilidade ambiental, fev 2006 (mais um #$%$! pdf!).

06/04/07 Good Friday / sexta-feira Santa a good day for a report from the UN.

Rajendra Pachauri
Endbox 2. Likelihood and confidence language

In this Summary for Policymakers, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result:
Virtually certain > 99% probability of occurrence, Extremely likely > 95%, Very likely > 90%, Likely > 66%, More likely than not > 50%, Very unlikely < 10%, Extremely unlikely < 5%.

The following terms have been used to express confidence in a statement:
Very high confidence At least a 9 out of 10 chance of being correct, High confidence About an 8 out of 10 chance, Medium confidence About a 5 out of 10 chance, Low confidence About a 2 out of 10 chance, Very low confidence Less than a 1 out of 10 chance.
IPCC Certainty
I spent a few minutes (more than a few actually) trying to render IPCC's 'Endbox 2' in HTML - had to cheat in the end, bored with the stupid language - and something I did (?) makes it render improperly in preview-mode, oh well.

The man with the microphone is Rajendra Pachauri.

(If you do happen to know anyone who would walk across a street on 1 in 10 odds of getting hit lemme know eh? Maybe we can sell him a used glacier for a very good price and go wait this out in comfort somewhere ... Santa Catarina, Rio Grande do Sul, Argentina, Falkland islands.)

IPCC (of WMO & UNEP of the UN) releases WG2 of AR4 in Brussels today; amidst bickering between the scientists & the diplomats; to tell us what most (or at least many) of us have known for almost half a century, viz.:

We are not behaving well on our little planet
(and what goes around, comes around).

News from Canada's Globe & Mail: Arthur Max, All-night meeting needed to approve climate change report, Source, Lake Superior warming faster than surrounding climate, Source, and Comments, Source. Go on! Read the comments by worldly and eminent and literate k-k-k-Canadians on the state of Lake Superior. Ai Ai Ai!

Notícias from Brasil: Aquecimento Global - EUA e China questionam novo relatório da ONU, (Source), and, Andreia Fanzeres e Eric Macedo, Relatório-catástrofe, (Source).

A partir da próxima semana, o IPCC vai publicar relatórios regionais sobre os impactos das mudanças climáticas. Um deles abrange especificamente o Brasil, e será divulgado no dia 10 de abril em São Paulo.

A-and sense & sensibility from Spiegel: Gerald Traufetter, UN Global Warming Report - The Age of the Climate Refugees?, (Source), and, Spiegel, Merkel on UN Climate Study - "Report Confirms Climate Change Is a Fact", (Source).

The United States, China and Saudi Arabia [and Russia and India] raised the most objections to the phrasing, most often seeking to tone the certainty of some of the more dire projections.

OK, some useful links: IPCC - Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, WMO - World Meteorological Organization, UNEP - United Nations Environment Programme.

There is all sorts of context; the structure of the report, the organization (hordes, a veritable ARMY of bureaucrats I presume and all on somebody's payroll); the timing, the credibility, it goes on and on and on - some essentials: AR4 = Fourth Assessment Report, WG2 (sometimes WGII) = Working Group Two (2) - blah blah blah ... So far they have released a 25 page 'Summary for Policymakers'. You can get your own copy of it (in %$#! pdf format!) here: Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policymakers.

In my view the only effective policymakers in this story are going to be the citizens of the planet (each and every one of them - that would be us, you and me ...) so ... I guess ... the report must be for us eh?

Anything these wankers do 'collectively' will either be like Darfur (nothing) or like Iraq & Guantanamo (bomb the shit out of anyone who objects, and use torture as necessary).

What to do then? Influencing or even trying to influence governments at the country/federal or even state level is a job for oil companies and others with deep pockets - BUT - municipal governments could be a bit more approachable depending on the location and scale - SO - if I were going to try to do something with any hope of actually achieving it, say, a recycling centre or such like, maybe that would be the place to try it ... with a teaspoon, just a thought.

"The world watches and does nothing."
     Bob Rae, former (NDP) premier of Ontario.

04/04/07, Jens Jessen, Verboten - Politicians ban the pleasures of the working man, Source.

"And his brain has been mismanaged with great skill."
     Bob Dylan, Licence to Kill, 1983.

Man thinks 'cause he rules the earth he can do with it as he please
And if things don't change soon, he will.
Oh, man has invented his doom,
First step was touching the moon.

Now, there's a woman on my block,
She just sit there as the night grows still.
She say who gonna take away his license to kill?

Now, they take him and they teach him and they groom him for life
And they set him on a path where he's bound to get ill,
Then they bury him with stars,
Sell his body like they do used cars.

Now, there's a woman on my block,
She just sit there facin' the hill.
She say who gonna take away his license to kill?

Now, he's hell-bent for destruction, he's afraid and confused,
And his brain has been mismanaged with great skill.
All he believes are his eyes
And his eyes, they just tell him lies.

But there's a woman on my block,
Sitting there in a cold chill.
She say who gonna take away his license to kill?

Ya may be a noisemaker, spirit maker,
Heartbreaker, backbreaker,
Leave no stone unturned.
May be an actor in a plot,
That might be all that you got
'Til your error you clearly learn.

Now he worships at an altar of a stagnant pool
And when he sees his reflection, he's fulfilled.
Oh, man is opposed to fair play,
He wants it all and he wants it his way.

Now, there's a woman on my block,
She just sit there as the night grows still.
She say who gonna take away his license to kill?

"Rainy days on the Great Lakes, walkin' the hills of old Duluth."
     Bob Dylan, Something There is About You, 1974.

Old Woman Bay is a fair step from Duluth. I always stop there, even now that they have not-so-funny little men and women going around with guns and derby hats to make sure you plug the meter.

Lake Superior Old Woman Bay

What Good Am I, 1989.

What good am I
If I'm like all the rest,
If I just turn away,
When I see how you're dressed,
If I shut myself off
So I can't hear you cry,
What good, am I?

What good am I
If I know and don't do,
If I see and don't say,
If I look right through you,
If I turn a deaf ear
To the thunder in the sky,
What good, am I?

What good am I
While you softly weep
And I hear in my head
What you say in your sleep,
And I freeze in the moment
Like the rest who don't try,
What good, am I?

What good am I
To others and me
If I've had every chance
And yet still fail to see
If my hands are tied
Must I not wonder within
Who tied them and why
And where must I have been

What good am I
If I say foolish things
And I laugh in the face of
What sorrow brings
And I just turn my back
Whle you silently die,
What good,am I?

Hard Rain, 1963.

Oh, where have you been, my blue-eyed son?
Oh, where have you been, my darling young one?
I've stumbled on the side of twelve misty mountains,
I've walked and I've crawled on six crooked highways,
I've stepped in the middle of seven sad forests,
I've been out in front of a dozen dead oceans,
I've been ten thousand miles in the mouth of a graveyard,
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, and it's a hard,
And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.

Oh, what did you see, my blue-eyed son?
Oh, what did you see, my darling young one?
I saw a newborn baby with wild wolves all around it
I saw a highway of diamonds with nobody on it,
I saw a black branch with blood that kept drippin',
I saw a room full of men with their hammers a-bleedin',
I saw a white ladder all covered with water,
I saw ten thousand talkers whose tongues were all broken,
I saw guns and sharp swords in the hands of young children,
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, and it's a hard,
And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.

And what did you hear, my blue-eyed son?
And what did you hear, my darling young one?
I heard the sound of a thunder, it roared out a warnin',
Heard the roar of a wave that could drown the whole world,
Heard one hundred drummers whose hands were a-blazin',
Heard ten thousand whisperin' and nobody listenin',
Heard one person starve, I heard many people laughin',
Heard the song of a poet who died in the gutter,
Heard the sound of a clown who cried in the alley,
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, and it's a hard,
And it's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.

Oh, who did you meet, my blue-eyed son?
Who did you meet, my darling young one?
I met a young child beside a dead pony,
I met a white man who walked a black dog,
I met a young woman whose body was burning,
I met a young girl, she gave me a rainbow,
I met one man who was wounded in love,
I met another man who was wounded with hatred,
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, and it's a hard,
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.

Oh, what'll you do now, my blue-eyed son?
Oh, what'll you do now, my darling young one?
I'm a-goin' back out 'fore the rain starts a-fallin',
I'll walk to the depths of the deepest black forest,
Where the people are many and their hands are all empty,
Where the pellets of poison are flooding their waters,
Where the home in the valley meets the damp dirty prison,
Where the executioner's face is always well hidden,
Where hunger is ugly, where souls are forgotten,
Where black is the color, where none is the number,
And I'll tell it and think it and speak it and breathe it,
And reflect it from the mountain so all souls can see it,
Then I'll stand on the ocean until I start sinkin',
But I'll know my song well before I start singin',
And it's a hard, and it's a hard, it's a hard, and it's a hard,
It's a hard rain's a-gonna fall.

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